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Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market
Advisory Service
Daily Service Sample Article
(12/7/05)
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
SOYBEANS: [No Change] Since last weeks
“timing” buy-signal in the Jan soybeans has now been followed by a penetration
of key resistance, at 5.63-5.67 ˝, it is certainly possible that we have
confirmed the completion of a [5]-wave decline from the June top. In which case,
a [6]th-wave rally could remain in force for another week or so, with prices
possibly advancing as high as the 5.94-5.99 ˝ level. However, because the
decline from the Nov 14 peak appears to be TOO SMALL, relative to
waves-[1]-and-[3]-down, AND the 5.44 1/4 low did NOT occur at ANY major support
projections, I think the odds slightly favor a SMALLER, wave-(2)-of-[5] bounce.
Under this interpretation, the current rally should hold the key
14.58%retracement/resistance projection from BOTH the 2004 AND 2005 highs, or
5.75 ˝-to-5.81. Anyhow, since I also show very good moving average resistance in
this same area, I think we’ll take a crack at re-selling here...using a VERY
TIGHT STOP. Near-term support for Jan beans is now at 5.63 ˝-5.57 ˝.
CORN: Although a “timing” buy-signal could
be triggered in the corn, IF a new rally high occurs AFTER Tues Dec 6, the
recent penetration key support continues to favor LOWER PRICES. Note, that the
next lower area of good support is now at the 90.9%-retracement projection from
the 1987-1996 Bull cycle, or 1.79 ˝. However, because the long-range pattern
continues to call for an eventual decline to AT LEAST BELOW the 2000 bottom
(-1.74), a drop to the next lower support cluster at 1.71 ˝-1.67 ˝ is certainly
possible. At any rate, as long as the MAXIMUM RESISTANCE at 1.97-1.99 1/4 holds
in the Dec contract, or about 2.11 ˝-2.13 3/4 basis Mar corn, we’ll hold short.
The closest resistance, however, is now at 1.90-1.90 ˝ and 1.92 3/4-1.95 1/4
Dec, and about 2.04 ˝-2.05/2.07 1/4-2.09 3/4 in the March contract.
WHEAT: Since the current rally in the March wheat has now EQUALED the greatest
duration of any bounce since the Sept peak, or 6-trading days, AND prices also
achieved my first good resistance area at 3.24-3.27 1/4, a somewhat pivotal
juncture is at hand. If prices can turn back down here, then the pattern will
continue to indicate that a primary wave-[1] decline is still developing-off the
Sept peak. In which case, an immediate drop to AT LEAST the 2.88-2.84 level
should occur in the Dec contract, or about 3.04-3.00 basis March. On the other
hand, however, IF a new rally high occurs AFTER Tues Dec 6, then we’ll have to
conclude that primary wave-[1] has already bottomed. Under this count, a great
selling opportunity should develop in the next couple of weeks (as wave-[2]
peaks), presumably at EITHER the 3.31-3.32, OR 3.35-3.37 ˝ resistance area
(March contract).
COTTON: Given that everything continues to
call for an eventual drop to the 42.45-41.55 level in cotton (nearby contract),
we will continue to look for any opportunities to get short the market. However,
given that the next support area is at about the 50.20-49.82 level in the March
contract, we probably won’t see much of a bounce until then. This area yields
the 76.4%-
61.8%-retracement combination from the 1986 and 2001 continuation chart lows, as
well as the Aug bottom in March futures (49.80). Resistance for March cotton is
now at 52.53, 53.23, 53.81 and 54.39.
HOGS: As long as the Dec hogs do NOT drop
back BELOW interim support at 61.60-61.27, or about 65.20-to-64.22 basis the Feb
contract, the near-term pattern will indicate that a larger, wave-(c) advance is
developing here. In which case, the MINIMUM OBJECTIVE for the Feb contract will
likely be at the 70.85-71.25 level, with an eventual target at 73.65-73.77
possible. Traders should be aware however, that until Feb hogs EITHER exceed
resistance at 68.05-68.70, OR the Dec contract goes-off-the-board (Dec 14), the
nearby contract could still spike-down to the long-term support at 59.65-59.00.
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
OJ: While last weeks move to new highs in
OJ suggest that a MUCH LARGER ADVANCE may be developing-off the Aug bottom,
Mondays downward reversal not only traced-out a 5-wave decline on the intraday
chart, but my first big support area at 121.65-121.25 was also exceeded.
Consequently, until we can confirm that the current pullback is indeed a bullish
a-b-c, I’m going to stay on the sidelines. Pivotal support for Jan OJ is now at
119.75-119.15 and 117.80-117.15 max!, with the resistance at 124.50-124.90 and
127.30-130.35.
COFFEE: [See New Trades] Since the decline
in March coffee has now reached the upper-end of the key
50%-76.4%-retracement/support combination from the 2001 and 2005 lows, AND a
34.55%-depreciation from the March 2005 top, or 95.25-to-93.25, another very
important juncture is at hand. In essence, because I can NOT label a completed
advance from the Sept bottom; at the Nov top, prices should NOT violate this
support level. Otherwise, a HIGHLY UNUSUAL, 100%-retracement of the initial
advance will be indicated. At any rate, since the intraday pattern suggests that
prices still need to trace-out a small, wave-8 bounce, and then a FINAL,
9th-wave drop to new sell-off lows, we’ll probably have a buy recommendations
for ALL TRADERS on Tuesday, i.e., assuming the 93.25 level has NOT been
exceeded. Near-term resistance for March coffee is now at 97.25, 98.55-98.85 and
100.15.
COCOA: Given that the advance in March
cocoa has now achieved the key 14.58%-
30.9%-retracement resistance combination from the 2003 and 2005 continuation
chart highs, as well as a 23.6%-retracement from the contract high in March
futures, or 1461-to-1487, the ideal area for a MAJOR DOWNTURN is at hand.
However, because the intermediate-term pattern remains UNCLEAR, only HIGH RISK
TRADERS ought to go short. Note, it is possible that prices will extend to the
19.1%-38.2%-30.9%-retracement combination from the aforementioned highs, or
1513-to-1519. Pivotal support is now at 1451, 1441 and 1431-1422.
SILVER: [Except for the *support-No
Change] While the overall pattern in silver indicates that we should remain
focused on buying a multi-week/wave-[4] pullback...whenever it occurs, a rather
important juncture is now at hand-in terms of the FINAL PHASE of the Bull
market. If a wave-[4] correction/decline can occur from around the EQUAL
WAVES-[1]-and-[3] projection, or 8.66-8.735 Dec and about 8.765-8.835 March,
then the FINAL, [5]th-wave peak will probably still occur at our longstanding
objective of 8.98-9.175 (nearby contract). However, in the event the current,
wave-[3] section up remains in force until the 8.98-9.175 level is reached, then
a MUCH MORE BULLISH wave-position will be indicated. Under this count, after a
multi-week/wave-[4] correction occurs, wave-[5] will likely EXTEND to at least
the 10.51-10.75 level. *Support for the March silver is now at 8.665-8.655,
8.55-8.53, 8.46-8.43 and 8.365-8.335.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/07/05
SOYBEANS: Traders/Hedgers (33%) can sell
Jan beans at 5.76 ˝, using a stop at 5.82 184.
CORN: Traders/Hedgers (50%) are short
2-March corn from 2.03 1/4 (+$6,837.50 w/rollover). Use a stop at 2.15 1/4.
WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (50%) are short
March wheat at 3.18 ˝ (+$2,150 w/rollover). Use a stop at 3.41 1/4.
COFFEE: Traders can buy the March coffee
at 94.05, placing ALL STOPS at 91.65. *Also, IF 96.80 is exceeded first, then
traders can raise the buy-order to 95.75. In this event, place ALL STOPS at
92.85.
COCOA: HRT are short March cocoa from 1461
(+$320). Keep the stop at 1485.
STOCKS: Traders were stopped-out of their
short Dec e-mini S&P at 1271.25 for a loss of $525.
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